ESPN Sports Poll recently pronounced soccer as America's
second-most popular sport for those age 12-24, outstripping the NBA, MLB and
college football. Rich Luker founded the Sports Poll in 1994 when he realized
the industry lacked a systematic intelligence service despite the billions of
dollars poured into it. Granted, Luker's terrain, the United
States, is exceptional. "We live in a
country that experiences a pent-up need for connection between family and
friends, and sport has become the dominant way to do that," he said. His
studies have revealed that 85 percent of Americans identify themselves as
sports fans, and the social scientist said with a giddy tone of wonder,
"Most cultures have two, sometimes three dominant sports -- the United
States has 12."
The U.S. soccer
audience is also unique in Luker's eyes. "It is a true community. The only
group that comes close are college sports fans or followers of the Grateful
Dead. They embrace soccer as a communal lifestyle as opposed to a personal
experience or a community that only exists on gameday."
Luker's analysis has revealed the reason soccer fandom tends to be expressed on
a 24/7 basis. "Soccer was originally an expression of national identity in
hotbeds like the
United Kingdom
or Brazil,"
he said. "So that seed has been imported and sown here in the United
States."
However, Luker also believes soccer is underperforming. "It's a sport that
should have been doing well a long time ago." The social scientist is well
positioned to make that claim. He partnered with MLS back when it was planning
the launch of the league in 1994. "We discovered 30 percent of American
households contained someone playing soccer. The only game that comes close to
that massive number is baseball."
But the sporting tectonic plates have shifted.
America's
cultural diversification, increasingly globalized outlook, and widespread
access to the Internet all have benefited soccer more than the other more
traditional American sports. "In the last two years, Americans have been
exposed to elite soccer on a very regular basis, which has allowed us to appreciate
the sport and develop a savvy about it in a way we could not before,"
Luker said.
The impact of these factors has been as powerful as they are simple. "Kids
growing up today gain cachet and social currency by knowing about the
sport," Luker said. The old stigma has fallen away. Pride and esteem have
become attached to the game for the first time as Americans have collectively
undergone a "now we understand what it is all about" moment. It is
only a matter of time 'til we see soccer take off in a big way."
Soccer's avid fanbase is 10 percent, which does not sound like much until you
realize that is 33 million people. "Based on the way it is trending, I
believe global soccer will soon be four or five times bigger than it is today,
and MLS's fanbase will triple or quadruple," he said. For those who
do not believe, Luker is keen to underline that change can happen fast.
"In 1994, MLB was as popular as the NFL. This stuff can shift quickly and
right now, soccer is like a rocket ship on the launchpad."
"If baseball and basketball don't adapt to this new reality they are going
to have issues," Luker continued, discussing the NFL's challenge to
continue to develop talent in an era in which youth participation has dropped
precipitously. "Fewer and fewer kids are actually playing [American]
football so they won't learn the game in the way it sustained their interest in
the past. It is an inevitability that soccer will soon be as popular as MLB and
NBA."
How long will it take to get there? "We are talking generational
change," Luker said. "A generation of kids have now grown up as
having MLS as part of their reality. Give us one more cycle and that is all it
will take. One more generation."
Despite Luker's evident enthusiasm for soccer's future, he said that he grew up
playing hockey in Ann Arbor, Mich., and only watches
MLS
and EPL for a living. When pushed, he concluded by confessing, "My
greatest delight is to look out of a plane's window when I am crossing the
country and see what people are playing in the parks below," he said.
"If you watch it like that, soccer is the biggest sport in the
nation."
Roger Bennett is a columnist for ESPN, and with Michael Davies, is one of
Grantland's "Men In Blazers." Follow him on Twitter: @rogbennett.
