Soccer's Big Takeover

ESPN Sports Poll recently pronounced soccer as America's second-most popular sport for those age 12-24, outstripping the NBA, MLB and college football. Rich Luker founded the Sports Poll in 1994 when he realized the industry lacked a systematic intelligence service despite the billions of dollars poured into it. Granted, Luker's terrain, the United States, is exceptional. "We live in a country that experiences a pent-up need for connection between family and friends, and sport has become the dominant way to do that," he said. His studies have revealed that 85 percent of Americans identify themselves as sports fans, and the social scientist said with a giddy tone of wonder, "Most cultures have two, sometimes three dominant sports -- the United States has 12."

The U.S. soccer audience is also unique in Luker's eyes. "It is a true community. The only group that comes close are college sports fans or followers of the Grateful Dead. They embrace soccer as a communal lifestyle as opposed to a personal experience or a community that only exists on gameday."

Luker's analysis has revealed the reason soccer fandom tends to be expressed on a 24/7 basis. "Soccer was originally an expression of national identity in hotbeds like the United Kingdom or Brazil," he said. "So that seed has been imported and sown here in the United States."

However, Luker also believes soccer is underperforming. "It's a sport that should have been doing well a long time ago." The social scientist is well positioned to make that claim. He partnered with MLS back when it was planning the launch of the league in 1994. "We discovered 30 percent of American households contained someone playing soccer. The only game that comes close to that massive number is baseball."  

But the sporting tectonic plates have shifted. America's cultural diversification, increasingly globalized outlook, and widespread access to the Internet all have benefited soccer more than the other more traditional American sports. "In the last two years, Americans have been exposed to elite soccer on a very regular basis, which has allowed us to appreciate the sport and develop a savvy about it in a way we could not before," Luker said.

The impact of these factors has been as powerful as they are simple. "Kids growing up today gain cachet and social currency by knowing about the sport," Luker said. The old stigma has fallen away. Pride and esteem have become attached to the game for the first time as Americans have collectively undergone a "now we understand what it is all about" moment. It is only a matter of time 'til we see soccer take off in a big way."  

Soccer's avid fanbase is 10 percent, which does not sound like much until you realize that is 33 million people. "Based on the way it is trending, I believe global soccer will soon be four or five times bigger than it is today, and MLS's fanbase will triple or quadruple," he said. For those who do not believe, Luker is keen to underline that change can happen fast. "In 1994, MLB was as popular as the NFL. This stuff can shift quickly and right now, soccer is like a rocket ship on the launchpad."

"If baseball and basketball don't adapt to this new reality they are going to have issues," Luker continued, discussing the NFL's challenge to continue to develop talent in an era in which youth participation has dropped precipitously. "Fewer and fewer kids are actually playing [American] football so they won't learn the game in the way it sustained their interest in the past. It is an inevitability that soccer will soon be as popular as MLB and NBA."

How long will it take to get there? "We are talking generational change," Luker said. "A generation of kids have now grown up as having MLS as part of their reality. Give us one more cycle and that is all it will take. One more generation."  

Despite Luker's evident enthusiasm for soccer's future, he said that he grew up playing hockey in Ann Arbor, Mich., and only watches MLS and EPL for a living. When pushed, he concluded by confessing, "My greatest delight is to look out of a plane's window when I am crossing the country and see what people are playing in the parks below," he said. "If you watch it like that, soccer is the biggest sport in the nation."

Roger Bennett is a columnist for ESPN, and with Michael Davies, is one of Grantland's "Men In Blazers." Follow him on Twitter: @rogbennett.